Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.749380 2.099526 2.493392 2.968022 3.523168 4.150588 4.912009
2026-01-11 1.295384 1.752230 2.322234 3.080469 4.056731 5.264891 6.865844
2026-01-18 0.978978 1.464829 2.125723 3.078957 4.404791 6.167458 8.668498
2026-01-25 0.738934 1.209403 1.899905 2.968176 4.555172 6.796122 10.161611
2026-02-01 0.570570 1.013209 1.708901 2.854407 4.657341 7.339676 11.569019
2026-02-08 0.468624 0.895441 1.608431 2.848594 4.901076 8.094994 13.344429
2026-02-15 0.392424 0.802844 1.528199 2.854771 5.152412 8.874831 15.223097
2026-02-22 0.326393 0.713286 1.435001 2.819247 5.321440 9.530290 16.957549
2026-03-01 0.260467 0.608741 1.294828 2.674871 5.277330 9.819279 18.106040
2026-03-08 0.219348 0.545306 1.220210 2.637472 5.413501 10.419970 19.827442
2026-03-15 0.187604 0.494864 1.161945 2.620891 5.581978 11.087662 21.719003
2026-03-22 0.174978 0.485397 1.186852 2.774097 6.092217 12.419302 24.913580
2026-03-29 0.156822 0.459414 1.173271 2.848402 6.461820 13.537752 27.843465
2026-04-05 0.143945 0.443997 1.181064 2.970291 6.943542 14.917025 31.388699
2026-04-12 0.125630 0.409731 1.138606 2.973114 7.174260 15.825556 34.106398
2026-04-19 0.104555 0.362239 1.054966 2.867107 7.154620 16.227170 35.858328
2026-04-26 0.086828 0.319638 0.975321 2.757261 7.110445 16.569572 37.513976
2026-05-03 0.076057 0.295626 0.940151 2.751754 7.303351 17.425013 40.288865
2026-05-10 0.067169 0.275307 0.911289 2.757780 7.523281 18.356525 43.295992
2026-05-17 0.058209 0.252116 0.869689 2.723365 7.640199 19.069968 45.891599
2026-05-24 0.047658 0.219772 0.794136 2.583463 7.476244 19.134489 47.075347
2026-05-31 0.041291 0.201264 0.757449 2.547227 7.571887 19.801789 49.647857
2026-06-07 0.036231 0.186344 0.729229 2.531162 7.718139 20.599622 52.576248